Another one?! Thankfully, it’s the last international break for a few months which, given the rate of withdrawals from the England squad, is probably a sentiment shared by many. That said, these breaks do allow for an extended period of reflection which the usual carnage of Championship football doesn’t allow. So, what’s the assessment on Rovers so far?
Overall, sitting in ninth place, three points off the playoffs and seven points above the drop zone feels both a fair and certainly respectable position. It feels fair in that we’ve probably seen a combination of the good, the OK and the not so good across our 15 league and two cup games so far this season.
After ending September in third place, with goals and wins under our belt, October and November have proven much tougher. Currently two wins (and one draw) from those eight games, with just the five goals across that period (elevated with the three at Cardiff of course). It’s perhaps been easy with recency bias, and a home/away points divide, to feel like things are worse than they are – although Preston, Coventry and Plymouth were a tough gruel!
I was really intrigued by the Sky Sports statistics flashed up before the game at Cardiff. During the first seven league games of the season (August/September), Rovers had a 17.5% chance conversion rate with eight expected goals (xG). In the next seven (October/November), the 7.6 expected goals were instead complimented by only a 2.5% conversion rate. That illustrates the fine margins that Rovers have been either side of this season. In the 1-0 home win against Swansea, Rovers fashioned one shot on target and Swansea missed a guilt-edged chance to equalise. In the frustrating 2-0 defeat to Stoke, we had eight shots on target!
Even in the games won this season, you wouldn’t say the blueprint has been about cutting the opposition open at will, and a raft of good quality chances. That’s what has made the last two games so pleasing in my view. The headers for Mahktar Gueye (enough said) and Andi Weimann against Stoke and laying two balls across the six-yard box for Weimann tap-ins at Cardiff, were as good a quality chance we’ve created all season. Signs of the attacking output moving in the right direction and, if it wasn’t for Victor Johansson, which should have got us two wins from the last two.
Of course, if we’re talking about the attack, we have to mention the goals at Cardiff – the first two, in particular, things of beauty. Spearheaded by the revitalised Lewis Travis, patient possession football turning into insightful defence splitting attack was as joyful, as it was impressive. A very welcome win in what has been a tough spell for Rovers and, as discussed on Arte et Labore, still a decent return of seven points from the last eighteen available.
For that reason, sitting in ninth within a win of the playoffs, and over two wins from the drop zone, makes it a respectable start to the season, for me. Coming into the season, I carried quite a few worries about what this season would bring – especially prior to the transfer activity that ultimately bulked out the squad.
John Eustace deserves enormous credit for being the firm glue that has taken us from the exciting, but vulnerable team he inherited in January, to true Championship battlers. It’s exactly what Rovers need right now and if we can keep those respective gaps above and below us at those distances (or more beneath us!), then pre-season fear can certainly become mid-season hope.
The secret to his success has been some outstanding comrades on the pitch. Lewis Travis is back to the all action midfielder that we just know and love. I thought it was a true leader’s performance at Cardiff on Saturday, especially on the back of that tough October/November period. He was part of everything good, starting attacks deep in our half. That pass for Harry Pickering to split open the Cardiff defence for our second was certainly magnificent.
Trav’s return to form is of course aided by Sondre Tronstad, who continues to set his own high standards to the point where it's just an automatic expectation. Aynsley Pears has also been outstanding in goal. In the middle of a poorer run of form, it’s easy to forget the contributions from your goalkeeper. But he kept us in the games at home to Sheffield United and Stoke, and his two saves at Cardiff were top-drawer. I’m gutted his penalty save didn’t lead to a clean sheet victory for Rovers, but nonetheless, it’s been brilliant to see the growth and return to form of Pears.
Looking ahead, the Venky's court case still plagues us and I still retain some anxiety about squad depth. Hayden Carter’s long-term injury exposes Danny Batth and Dom Hyam into needing to maintain fitness for a long time in a gruelling part of the season.
Mahktar Gueye is looking every bit the gamble now, and Yuki Ohashi hasn’t scored since September despite his infectious energy and work rate for the team – fingers crossed he doesn’t burn out in the second half of the season. Pace down the wings of course remains a gap. Hopefully, there is some kind of transfer budget for Eustace to elevate his brilliant work so far - the least he deserves!
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here