Blackburn review: Exceeding expectations & areas to improve

We're now just ahead of the quarter-mark in the Championship season and John Eustace's side have, undoubtedly, performed above initial expectations.

There was understandable trepidation about a side that had narrowly avoided relegation, recruited late and lost their 33-goal talisman, who they'd been incredibly reliant on.

But it's evident that Eustace and his coaching staff have significantly raised the floor of this team. At their worst, they're a lower mid-table Championship side. At their best? Well that's what we're still trying to gauge but the first dozen have been promising.

This seems an apt moment to reflect on what's gone before. Look at some of the trends of the season and try to explain them. Where is the team excelling? And what can be improved?

Sustainable defensive form

Blackburn Rovers' defensive unit have been close to flawless this season. They have kept five clean sheets in 12 games but those numbers can often not tell the picture.

A team could be bailed out by poor finishing ro their goalkeeper consistently performing above the expected levels. For Rovers, their underlying numbers show that, at their core, they are excellent at limiting the opposition to few big chances.

Taking a look at the expected goals against column, Rovers have conceded 11 from an xG of 10.98. So right on the money for what you would expect. That implies that what we've seen so far has legs and is repeatable, which is a big plus.

Another interesting statistic to look at is the xG per shot on target. Rovers have conceded 132 shots at their goal, which is about mid-range in the Championship this season.

Blackburn Rovers' xG against per shot. (Image: Opta Analyst)

But the average xG of those shots is just 0.08, which is joint-lowest in the division. In layman's terms, when teams are taking a shot at Rovers' goal, it's from a non-threatening area. Also very good.

Work to improve the attack

It's always a balancing act in football. You can often describe it as a blanket. You'll never quite get full coverage (unless you're Manchester City) and so you have to choose which body parts need the extra warmth the most.

Rovers' defensive numbers are excellent and sustainable. In attack, there is work to do on chance creation. Eustace's side have scored 16 goals from an xG of 10.63, which is a 33% (roughly) overperformance.

It basically means that Rovers' finishing has been quite hot. They have scored more than you'd expect for the quality of chances they have created.

Only Burnley and Sunderland have outperformed their xG by a bigger margin. The 10.63 that Rovers have generated also stands at 18th in the table, which shows there is work to do.

Blackburn Rovers' xG difference. (Image: Opta Analyst)

Now it's important to build context into that too. Rovers lost Sam Szmodics, signed two strikers who are adapting to the Championship and have only just reached a point where Todd Cantwell, a key creative hub, can start three games in a week.

A core that Eustace trusts

Blackburn Rovers have four players that have started every Championship game. Aynsley Pears, Dom Hyam, Lewis Travis and Sondre Tronstad.

That number was six until the weekend, when Tyrhys Dolan and Hayden Carter dropped out. So that clearly shows the Rovers boss has his lieutenants that he trusts and relies on.

Rovers have used 23 players so far this season and only six teams have used a lower number. Pears and Hyam have played every minute so far whilst the Travis and Tronstad have missed 81 between them in 12 games.

There will come a time when Eustace has to rotate those three outfielders, particularly the central midfielders. Lewis Baker topped up his minutes on Monday night and John Buckley is also patiently waiting in the wings.

Tough opposition

The good news for Rovers is that looking at the stats, they have had a relatively difficult start to the season.

The excellent website, Soccerstats, looks at the points per game of each opponent faced and left to face. You can also narrow it down to the last four, next four etc.

Of those in the top six, nobody has faced teams that have accrued more points than Rovers (1.39), with Leeds at the same number. So, basically, the teams Blackburn have played have fared petty well this season against other teams too.

(Image: Soccerstats)

If you look at a team like Burnley or Sheffield United, for example, they have had it 'relatively' more comfortable in terms of the form of those teams they've already played. You can see by the percentage numbers that things will get trickier in terms of the opposition they have left to face.

Spaces up for grabs

So adding more goals and creativity in the team is the big target, whilst retaining the excellent defensive shape shown.

In the attack, I think Dolan and Cantwell's positions are pretty nailed down when fit and firing. That final spot is a question mark, as is the number nine spot.

Adding more pace into the team remains a priority. Amario Cozier-Duberry could be that figure but hasn't had an opportunity yet, due to selection and fitness.

There's healthy competition in both full-back areas and everywhere else is relatively settled. It will be a test of Danny Batth's durability over the next few months with Hayden Carter out until the New Year.