Style, pressing and what the data tells us about Blackburn

Blackburn Rovers fans would be forgiven, though, for taking a sneak peek after an unbeaten start to the season. There is renewed optimism at Ewood Park and a positive end to the transfer window has elevated any fears the team will be looking down rather than up come May.

As we've mentioned, four games is a poor sample size but there have still been plenty of interesting trends across the Championship and with Rovers.

With the help of Opta Analyst, we've taken a look at what the underlying numbers and statistics are saying about Rovers' opening four Championship games.

What has the style of play look like?

Rovers have been notably more offensive in their approach compared to last season. It's been very interesting to see the evolution under Eustace in the last six months.

As written in a recent 'Rovers takeaways' article, I confessed my pre-season fears that Rovers would just be a bit of a stodgy team under Eustace. Hard to beat and ok in-possession but without the ambition to really attack their opponents.

I've been pleasantly surprised at how the 'handbrake' has been taken off in the opening four games, to coin an overused phrase. Without the pressure and very genuine threat of relegation, Rovers have been more open and expansive.

They've also retained the resilience and 'hard to beat' qualities that they installed last season which got them over the line. Combined the two and you have a team that is upwardly mobile in the division.

What does that look like in statistical terms? Well, bang in the middle of the road, as might expect.

Looking at the speed of which a team progresses the ball up the pitch and how many passes it takes them to cover that distance, it gives you a good idea of what you're going to see play out on the pitch.

(Image: Opta)

For example, with Swansea City, you can see from the axis that they play a lot passes per sequence of possession, which we already know. The criticism of that style is that they don't progress the ball quick enough, which is shown by their low point on the 'direct speed' axis.

At the opposite end of the scale, you have Millwall. We all know that, under Neil Harris, they're a direct and physical side. They get the ball forward quick and go back-to-front with few passes, as shown on the graph.

Rovers are in the middle of the whole thing. They're capable of keeping the ball to probe and open up the opposition. Equally, they have speed, athleticism and physicality at the top end of the pitch which allows them to be a direct counter-attacking team.

What does the out-of-possession style look like?

Rovers have shown different strings to their bow in this game too. They are comfortably pressing from the front, which they tend to do with 11 men, but can also defend their 18-yard box in a deep block, as they had to do at Turf Moor.

That half an hour of camping inside their own third does skew the data somewhat. However, when we look at the metrics which determine how well a team presses, Rovers come out favourable.

(Image: Opta)

Passes per defensive action (PPDA) measure how many passes a team allows the opposition to play before they make a tackle. So whether they're sitting off and letting them knock it around the back and deep midfield or whether they're chasing after them to win the ball high up the pitch. The lower the number, the more a team presses.

Rovers rank quite well which shows their appetite to win it back high. Only six teams better their PPDA value of 11.7, which would be even higher had they not played with ten at Burnley.

The leaders in this metric are Sheffield Wednesday, under the Bayern Munich schooled Danny Rohl, and Burnley themselves. That all passes the eye test.

How many points should Rovers have, according to the data?

Well, the data would suggest Rovers have been on the right end of several tight matches. You'd have to say that's fair, considering they have taken five points from losing positions.

If they'd drawn with Oxford and lost narrowly at Norwich, I don't think anyone would have argued that was vastly unfair. That is just a reflection of how tight the margins are in this year's Championship.

This particular model uses the expected goals (xG) of each team to attribute how the match would end if it was played 10,000 times.

It's not a fool-proof system. It doesn't take into account game state (if you're expected to be losing but drawing, you'd chase the game more) and periods where you have lots of dangerous possession but don't convert it into an effort on goal. Nevertheless, it does give a decent barometer of how a team is playing.

(Image: Opta)

By this metric, Rovers should have 4.6 points rather than the eight they have accrued. That's roughly a win against Derby, draws against Oxford and Burnley plus a defeat at Norwich.

Whilst it's great that isn't the case, it is probably a fair reflection of what our eyes have told us. However, the very best teams defy these metrics and that's where your intangible qualities earn you points. Character, belief, spirit, etc.