LABOUR has held Burnley for almost 80 years, but opponents have never been so confident.
The town has seen many positives, including the opening of new university and college buildings, as well as the construction of new schools, since the last election.
But, two-and-a-half years since it closed, the axing of Burnley's accident and emergency unit remains the biggest single issue.
And there is further disillusionment. Outgoing Labour MP Kitty Ussher announced she would stand down after being caught up in the expenses furore.
Critics also point to the unpopularity of a 13-year-old Labour government.
It all means the fight for Burnley is arguably the fiercest East Lancashire battle of all.
The borough council is now run by the Liberal Demcorats, and some bookmakers make their candidate Gordon Birtwistle the 1/4 favourite.
Julie Cooper, the borough council’s Labour group leader, has been given the task of holding onto the seat for her party.
But she candidly admits: “I am the underdog. I am starting three laps behind Gordon because he has done all this before.
"But we have a record in government to be proud of and I don’t think Gordon has anything to be proud of.”
Coun Birtwistle, Burnley Council leader for the past four years, was the organiser of a huge petition demanding the A&E is brought back to the town.
He has stood for the Liberal Democrats in two previous General Elections.
He hopes his stance on the hospital, allied to voters’ fury over expenses, will make it third time lucky.
The furore over the hospital has been stoked too by health bosses’ recent decision to switch Burnley General Hospital’s children’s ward to Blackburn as well.
“I know what this means to Burnley,” said Coun Cooper.
“My mum was treated at Blackburn and it may be good healthcare but it is very inconvenient.
"I don’t just want the A&E back in Burnley. I want it better.
"But this is not a funding issue, because the Labour government has funded healthcare. It is a health authority decision.”
For his part, Coun Birtwistle is seeking to assure Burnley’s voters that he will have more success in reversing East Lancashire Hospital Trust’s decision as MP than he has had as council leader.
And Conservative candidate Richard Ali has promised a Tory government would support the return of A&E to Burnley too.
Coun Birtwistle said: “As MP, I would stand up in the House of Commons with my petition and demand that the Health Secretary listens to the people and not the so-called experts.
"As far as people are concerned the most important thing is having a high-quality hospital.”
But the ferocity of the battle between Birtwistle and Cooper had sparked a bitter campaign.
While Coun Birtwistle frequently uses Mrs Ussher on his campaign leaflets, even describing her as an ‘election asset’, local Labour party bosses have dragged up his past business dealings, highlighting a firm he ran which collapsed into administration eight years ago.
Against this backdrop and the wider disillusionment with politics, independent candidate and local businessman Andrew Brown hopes to capitalise.
And the owner of the town’s upmarket Crow Wood leisure centre stresses he is not merely making up the numbers, insisting the reaction on the doorstep has been positive.
“We are in exceptional circumstances,” he said. “This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity because of how angry people are about the system.
"That means I have got a fighting chance.”
With Crow Wood on his election CV, Mr Brown also believes he can teach the other candidates a thing or two about bringing much-needed investment into Burnley.
One of the only things councillors Cooper and Birtwistle can agree on is that they or their parties were responsible for Burnley’s new university campus, which they say will address the town’s skills shortage and encourage blue-chip employers to build bases there.
Meanwhile, Mr Ali has promised that a Tory government wouldn’t immediately cut public sector jobs and would boost the number of apprentices.
BNP candidate Sharon Wilkinson has also flagged up jobs as a key issue, arguing that voters are angry about immigrants filling vacancies ahead of locals.
Also running are Andrew Hennessey, another independent, and UK Independence Party candidate John Wignall, who could ensure that the eventual winner has fewer votes than in previous years.
Despite what the bookies say, Burnley seems too close to call.
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