IF Blackburn Rovers are to beat Manchester United at Old Trafford tonight then the battle for midfield supremacy holds the key to our chances.
If United have one weakness at the moment then it's in the centre of the park following Roy Keane's sudden departure.
Alan Smith, Darren Fletcher and John O'Shea are all accomplished Premiership performers, but none of those three have the ability to dominate games in the way that Keane used to in his pomp.
After a tight first leg, where Rovers did well to keep the tie alive in the face of intense United pressure, the second leg could develop into a real battle, particularly in the engine room.
That's why I'd start with Robbie Savage and Steven Reid tonight instead of Tugay, although the Turk would be an excellent insurance policy to have as back-up on the bench.
Tugay has been in excellent form this season and, by all accounts, he turned in another vintage performance at Newcastle.
But I, personally, think it would be a mistake to start with him against United for the simple reason we need as much energy as possible in the midfield areas.
That's something Sav and Reidy certainly have in abundance and their ability to shut people down could be crucial to our chances as United showed in the second half of the first game at Ewood that if you give them time and space, they'll hurt you.
No offence to Tugay, but his game isn't about energy and getting in the faces of opponents, but he could still have an important role to play in the second half once the game becomes stretched, but I still maintain our best hope is to keep things tight, initially, and then look to hit United on the break.
Much also rests on the form and fitness of Craig Bellamy, who, I'm told, missed several days of training last week due to a hamstring problem.
If he's fit enough to start - and firing on all cylinders - then he has the weaponry to cause United some serious problems.
You get the sense these days that United will give you chances; it's then up to us to make sure we take them.
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