IN PROPOSING a new elected forum in Northern Ireland, John Major may have steered the bogged-down peace process down a propitious new path.

On the other hand he may have driven into a dark cul-de-sac.

It is too early to judge.

But what is certain is that he has taken a gamble.

And it is one that ominously invites the worst suspicions of the nationalist community in Ulster that, as of old, they will not get a fair deal.

Yet, even if those suspicions are unfounded - and let it be said that, of all the British leaders who have wrestled with the Troubles, Mr Major has done most to resolve them - it will be hard to convince the Catholic, nationalist minority otherwise.

That is because, in accepting the view of the three-man Mitchell Commission's report on the deadlocked peace process that there was no chance of the paramilitary groups giving up their weapons in advance of all-party talks, he has played a new card that has the fingerprints of the Ulster Unionists all over it. True, the Mitchell report also suggested that elections to a new body could help to build trust between the two divided communities in the province.

But it first sought a gradual decommissioning of the weapons taking place alongside the so-far elusive all-party talks on a constitutional settlement.

What Mr Major has done is leapfrog that proposal and call for the Northern Ireland parties to stand for a new body that would have a role in the negotiations.

But this is an idea first proposed by the Ulster Unionists and, in taking it up, Mr Major arouses the suspicion of a deal with them,

This is because, with a wafer-thin majority in the Commons, he needs the votes of the Unionist MPs to survive.

Indeed, John Hume, leader of the mainly-Catholic SDLP and one of the original architects of the Anglo-Irish peace process, denounces it as such.

And will the nationalist community, let alone Sinn Fein and the IRA, not see it in the same light, so jeopardising the 17-month ceasefire that has given Ulster such a tantalising prospect of a lasting end to terror? The coolness of the Dublin government - with which Mr Major has hitherto been at pains to portray unanimity - is also a sign that this new move risks foundering on nationalist concern that any elected assembly in Ulster is bound to be loyalist-dominated and, so, only a descendant of such bias-laden bodies that have oppressed the Catholic minority in the past.

Mr Major and Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble will have to work hard to convince the doubters of their good intentions.

In particular, they will have to stress that this proposed new forum will not be another Stormont, but will simply be restricted to appointing negotiating teams without legislative or administrative powers over the province.

But, despite the suspicions that Mr Major's move has provoked, optimists might note that, so far at least, none of the doubters has ruled out participation in the proposed elections.

Super optimists might also hope that this avenue could, in any case, be rendered redundant if, before it becomes scheduled, the elusive all-party talks on Ulster's future constitution actually commence through all sides, with the decommissioning obstacle effectively overcome, now agreeing to take part in them.

However, one potent factor in favour of peace remains - that of the will for it on both sides of the Ulster divide.

It has been strengthened with each day that the ceasefire has continued and its force might, hopefully, be enough even to make Mr Major's gamble yet another step on the path to permanent harmony in Ulster.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.