DESPITE the doubts and qualifications that may be applied to the latest crime figures for England and Wales, the broad summary that last year's overall drop of 2.4 per cent in recorded offences is part of a heartening downward trend cannot be dismissed.

For this was the third consecutive year that crime has fallen.

And it is only the third time this century that such a pattern has occurred.

Those facts alone pour cold water on claims that the figures are open to manipulation for either political or propaganda purposes.

For, surely, it would be virtually impossible for the government and so many of our police forces to sustain such a large-scale deception for so long - and under the noses of the police inspectorate.

Note, too, that the Opposition lays no charges on that front. However, scepticism is healthy and the must-do-better attitude that it engenders clearly applies to the blight on the overall downward trend, caused by a two per cent rise in violent crimes and a serious 14.5 per cent leap in the number of robberies.

Yet, the undeniable improvement in the figures generally and the evidence of a firm trend has to be welcomed - and explained.

And while the dedication of the police and increasing crime-prevention awareness on the public's part must contribute to the results, it is fair to ask whether a new influence is encouragingly at work.

Could it be that the tougher response of the courts towards habitual offenders is now proving to be a deterrent?

There is no doubt that the government has had to heed the public's concerns on crime and has, with Home Secretary Michael Howard fronting a "prison works" policy, responded with a stricter anti-crime regime that has put the liberals to flight.

And, indeed, so popular is this outlook that, as we have previously observed, the political law-and-order battleground between the parties is now concerned with convincing the voters which of them is the toughest on crime. But one wonders whether we are now receiving confirmation of what the public has been saying all along about the retributive approach - that it is effective.

Certainly, despite the caveats that may be applied to them, the latest crime figures give Mr Howard every encouragement, against the doubts of the judiciary, to press on with the White paper proposals for tougher sentences, which he announces tomorrow.

One important reservation must strike him, however.

If the salutary lock-'em-up approach works, it also fills up the prisons and keeps offenders there for longer. The government cannot therefore have the beneficial results of falling crime on the cheap.

As Mr Howard gets even tougher, then, he must also listen to those in the prison service who are warning of trouble ahead if they have to manage an increasing jail population with fewer staff and reduced budgets.

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