MAYBE the "feel good" the Tories yearn for to improve their election hopes is coming back after all.

And perhaps it will be in time to rescue them in an autumn general election.

For while the government has become almost blue in the face telling voters how much better things are - sustained growth, low inflation, falling unemployment, rising exports, the cheapest mortgages for 30 years and the lowest basic rate of income tax since the war - it has done little to mend the Conservatives' 25-point lag in the opinion polls.

But new figures on consumer spending suggest today that John Major could be basking in a mini-boom by autumn, just as the voters might be going to the polls in a general election.

There are no straightforward certainties with economics.

Indeed, while this consumer boom is being sighted, others, looking at manufacturing industry in the doldrums, see the seeds of another recession in the wind.

However, the spending yardstick is one that should boost the Tories today.

For if it is a measure of voters' perceptions, on the premise that people spend when they feel confident and save when they are insecure, then "feel good" does seem to be on the way back.

And there was extra icing on the cake for Mr Major in the fact that, in a separate survey, house builders reported the market for new homes sales was in its best shape since 1994.

The declaration of the "beef war" with Europe may also boost the Tories as they tap the anger of the voters who are instinctively hostile to the EU and of those upset that it has bossed Britain about over the Mad Cow crisis.

But this jingo jangle is a gamble for the Prime Minister.

For kudos to come from it, he must actually win some battles in his war of non-co-operation with Europe and, as Britain is outnumbered, victories may be neither spectacular, nor swift.

If it turns out to be a long, phoney war, its impact on voting intentions may soon be spent.

Besides, not everyone thinks Europe is the baddie over BSE, believing that the crisis and the inept handling of it are our government's fault.

It is also a fact that younger voters are far less inclined to see our partners in the EU as "the enemy."

And should John Major win credit for the Tories in the beef war - and even if it that coincides nicely with a consumer boom on the threshold of an election - BSE has an awful sting in the tail.

For it was announced today that the bill for the Mad Cow crisis stands at £2.4billion so far - equivalent to 1.5p on the standard rate of income tax.

So whatever scope Mr Major has for reaping the benefits of economic recovery in an election in the autumn, it seems he will have little scope for tax cuts to add a shot of extra joy to the feel-good factor that looks in sight at last.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.