HAROLD Wilson's adage, that a week is a long time in politics, will no doubt chime with John Major's thoughts as the Tories gather for their crucial pre-election conference.

For the coming days may well determine his and the Conservatives' fate.

He desperately needs a good week and a triumphant conference.

An average outcome, with boat-rocking kept in check and even a semblance of unity cloaking the cracks, will not be sufficient.

For, like Republican contender Bob Dole in America, who fought a draw in last night's TV debate with President Clinton, the Tories are too far behind and running out of time to gain sufficiently from a passable performance.

It will not be enough even to match last week's Labour show - one that gave another opinion poll boost to the way-ahead Tony Blair.

John Major and his party must deliver drama and brilliance at Bournemouth to pull the fat out of the fire.

But can they?

Certainly, they have a stock of positive ammunition on the state of the economy.

It has, however, already been fired frequently to little effect.

No amount of emphasis on falling unemployment, cheap mortgages, low inflation, reviving house prices and rising personal wealth seems to sway the voters.

It needs spectacular and credible promises from ministers this week to grab the electorate's attention.

But what, if anything, can Mr Major afford or offer?

Certainly, on the most vote-influencing issue of all, that of taxation, he can only outdo Labour's vision of a basic income tax of 10p by coming up with a costed promise and a timetable.

Yet, on the platform at Bournemouth sits the Chancellor, who warns that the voters will not be charmed that way.

A commitment to a referendum on the single European currency, then - rather than the vague if-maybe hint of one given so far?

It is a tempting tactic - one that would destabilise the Referendum Party, the defection to which of former Tory Party treasurer and deputy chairman Lord McAlpine has delivered a pre-conference jolt to Mr Major.

It would also spike the guns of critics like Lord Tebbit who warn that the Prime Minister's wait-and-see policy on the single currency will not work.

But a plebiscite on this issue is full of potential for an instant backfire inside the party.

The already gaping internal rift over Europe would be exposed as never before as the factions would line up on either side of the referendum question - and Mr Major and the leadership would have to commit themselves to be for or against the single currency.

But, certainly, we see a hint already of attempts this week to grab the voters' attention with policies of a radical stamp.

Home Secretary Michael Howard's pledge to take away criminals' driving licences has all the character of a pre-election crime crackdown being unveiled at the conference.

However, cynical voters may see it only as window-dressing and flawed - in that losing their driving licences is hardly likely to deter hardened criminals when the threat of losing their liberty seems not to restrain them now.

No, Mr Major must come up with promises and policies that really capture the imagination and show the Tories are coming out fighting.

After all, their backs are up against the wall and, with dreadful timing, the clouds of cash-for-questions sleaze thicken yet again over the party.

With sleaze and defection, the week has begun badly for Mr Major.

It is up to him, as leader, to turn it around and the party's prospects with it in the coming days. It is a huge task - and a long week awaits the Prime Minister.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.