THERE is no doubt that John Major is a great survivor - as shown by the way he routed his opponents in the leadership challenge 18 months ago.

But will his accomplished TV performance yesterday, in which he stuck by his "wait and see" policy on the single currency, quell the divisions in the party?

We think not.

Mr Major warned that, even if it meant an early election, he would not be held to ransom on Europe or by maverick backbenchers exploiting his loss of his Commons' majority to press constituency issues.

But neither side of the party is likely to be appeased.

The "wait and see" stance will not suffice, simply because an election is due in any case in fewer than five months.

It may be that, in seeking to keep Britain's options open on the single currency, Mr Major, using his own analogy of a poker game, is seeking to shrewdly keep his cards close to his chest. And it may be that, at the same time, he is striving to contain the Euro-sceptics and the pro-Europeans in his party.

In essence it means that, in the national interest - which yesterday Mr Major pledged to put before those of the party even if it meant a snap election - Britain is wisely weighing the options until the inter-governmental EU meeting on monetary union next June.

But, surely, an election before then demands more than this kind of vagueness from the leadership.

That vacuum will not satisfy the "pro" and "anti" factions in the Tory Party.

They will continue to push for a clear policy, not least because they believe there should be one on which the voters can decide at the election, not one that emerges afterwards in the progress towards the EU "money" summit - when a Labour government may well be in charge.

In a sense, MPs are way ahead of the electorate on the single currency issue. Though it may be one of the most important constitutional decisions the government of the day will have to take, voters generally are not - as yet - so concerned about the fate of the pound.

Regrettably Europe - as is shown by the apathy in the UK at elections for the European Parliament - is regarded with a mixture of detachment and spontaneous disdain whenever exaggerated instances arise of Brussels "meddling" over such as regulations for the shape of bananas.

The larger issues of macro-economics, integration of foreign policy, common social policies and common currency are beyond the interest of most ordinary people. The topics are, as we have observed before, not the stuff of pub talk.

They are, however, vital to the shape of Britain's future.

And MPs realise that.

That is why the vacuum of "wait and see" on the single currency cannot be easily maintained by Mr Major when an election is in the offing.

Despite all the good reasons he has for keeping his cards close to his chest, he cannot credibly go to the country - or, now, be forced there by rebels or mavericks - with what amounts to no firm policy.

For that reason, he has trouble ahead all the way over Europe and crisis is stalking his every move, particularly so this week.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.