Political Focus, with Bill Jacobs

THERE might have been some confusion along the way, but Gordon Brown's Monday statement to MPs appears to have hit the button spot-on.

Prime Minister Tony Blair promised the Commons announcement would be "clear, definitive and detailed." Some may quibble with whether the each way bet that resulted meets that triple criteria.

But it did enough to satisfy both the pro and anti European wings of his party. It seemed to satisfy the financial market who deserted chaos because of the government's single currency policy to going bananas because of share price crashes in the Far East and the United States.

The generally pro European big business community were happy, as were the TUC. They all focused on Mr Brown's insistence that the government was committed to joining a single currency when the circumstances were right.

But the anti-European right-wing tabloid newspapers and the small businessmen worried about the implications of European Monetary Union were sufficiently mollified by the pledge that such circumstances would not permit scrapping the pound until at least after the next election and a referendum. But as far as the Tory Party is concerned, the statement - vetted carefully by Mr Blair - has scored a direct hit.

Two of the opposition's heaviest hitters, ex-Deputy Premier Michael Heseltine and former Chancellor Kenneth Clarke, have launched powerful attacks on leader William Hague and his unnecessary decision to harden his stance on a single currency.

They are furious the compromise agreed at the Blackpool Party Conference earlier this month that the Tories would not join in the "foreseeable future" has been shattered.

They are furious that this has been hardened up to virtually exclude any prospect of the Tories supporting such a move for 10 years.

In retaliation they have indicated they will back any "yes campaign" in a referendum and warned Mr Hague he is splitting the party from big business and the young.

Mr Clarke's campaign manager Ian Taylor has left the shadow ministerial team in disgust.

Although prominent North West Clarke supporter Michael Jack has ruled out quitting as a frontbench health spokesman because of the change, there are still grave fears that more shadow ministers may follow Mr Taylor's example.

Mr Hague is deeply alarmed that four of his Shadow Cabinet - Sir George Young, Stephen Dorrell, David Curry and Sir Alastair Goodlad - would probably be happier with Labour's position than his own.

The end result is the creation of a formal pro-European faction in the party which threatens more years of protracted trench warfare on the issue, like that which cost it so dear at the last election. While he hopes that they will hang on in the Shadow Cabinet, the news from the North West is grim.

Not only has former Pendle MP John Lee quit the party after 39 years. His vitriolic language talking about a "absurd and unreasonable" policy "cobbled together by a group of young zealots and old dinosaurs" is hard-hitting and damaging.

But as Mr Blair and Mr Brown preen themselves on their success - and perhaps muse that the best decision are those forced on governments by circumstance - in the longer term things are not so rosy.

Certainly, chaos and confusion have been damped down until the approach of the next election. But at that election the unresolved difficulties that lie behind the statement will reappear.

First of all, they have to be sure of winning an election where they will be the party committed to being ready to scrap the pound for the Euro. And secondly, they will then have to win the referendum on the issue that will follow. To do both, they will have to fight the right-wing press which is implacably opposed to any such measure. And they will also have to turn round a public opinion which is currently 60-40 against scrapping the pound.

One Labour wag remarked after Monday's statement that "the only unforeseen circumstance which will see British membership of the European single currency will be Tony Blair falling under a bus and Gordon Brown becoming Prime Minister."

However, there is another miracle which could make a difference. If Mr Blair and Mr Brown - with the support of dissident Tories - can swing the country in favour of a single currency, the rewards for Labour would be great.

There would be an election victory and a referendum victory for Labour on a pro single currency ticket that would leave the Tories in a deep mess.

Then Monday's statement would look even better crafted in 2002 than today, and Mr Hague and the Tory Party's problems this week will be tiny in comparison with the devastation and long term isolation facing them then.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.