Political Focus, with Bill Jacobs

NOW the Tony Blair benefit roadshow is on tour, the argument in favour of welfare reform appears to be going better for the government.

Despite the problems caused by the Gordon Brown biography, Robin Cook's personal life, Geoffrey Robinson's financial affairs and Jack Straw's son, the recent pressure on the government appears to be easing.

Taking over the European Union Presidency gives the Prime Minister and his key Cabinet allies a strong world stage to play on - but one which has a valuable domestic element as well.

The Tories' problems over Europe have been skilfully exploited by his hints at inviting senior Pro-European Conservative heavyweights into a "Patriotic Alliance".

Shadow Trade spokesman John Redwood may describe the shrewd tactic as a "juvenile prank" but it is Mr Blair who looks the world statesman, and the Wokingham Tory MP who seems to be indulging in playground insults.

The government's embarrassment over the Bernie Ecclestone million pound gift and tobacco sponsorship of Formula One now looks like a storm in a cockpit compared to the rather more serious allegations that the Tories took £1.5 million from the family of a major drug smuggler.

The fact that some on the Tory right are keen to use this discreditable donation as a means of smearing former party chairman, ex-Hong Kong governor and putative leadership candidate of the pro-European left, Chris Patten, is an added bonus for the government.

Indeed, after a brief period of apparent importance, the Tory Party seems to be justifying the bleak view of one ex-Conservative Minister that it is "irrelevant." He adds: "I've just written 1998 off. The country wants this government to succeed so anything we do doesn't matter."

Then he expresses his deepest fear: "They seem to be turning into a rather good Tory government - so where does that leave us?"

But even as a new period of calm and success seems to be following the recent squalls to hit the Blair administration, there is still an inquest going on into why the problems happened.

Mr Blair and his inner circle are determined to learn from their mistakes and prevent, wherever possible, a recurrence.

A key part of this will be the Cabinet reshuffle expected in late Spring/early Summer.

The Prime Minister was dissuaded from an early shake-up by his Chief Whip Nick Brown - who ironically is now just in the frame for the axe because of his role in the Brown biography fiasco.

But the need to freshen up the team, cut out the dead wood and bring in the high-performing talent lower down the Ministerial ranks will force action at about the time, or soon after, the anniversary of New Labour's first term in office.

The names mentioned for the axe in the run-up to Christmas remain high on the list - Transport Minister Gavin Strang, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster David Clark, Culture Secretary Chris Smith, and Agriculture Minister Jack Cunningham.

Health Secretary Frank Dobson is another considered at risk but his straight-talking and left-wing credentials inspire confidence in an NHS workforce that will find little to cheer them in the pay packets for the next 18 months.

And while the malcontents in Ulster may wish to see the back of Northern Ireland Secretary Mo Mowlam, her honesty, commitment and unorthodox way of working suits Mr Blair, and may well be the best way of trying to solve an apparently insoluble problem. Candidates for promotion include Minister without Portfolio Peter Mandelson, School Standards supremo Stephen Byers, Health Ministers Tessa Jowell and Alan Milburn, the Scottish Office's Brian Wilson, and the North-West's own Minimum Wage Minister Ian McCartney.

But the most surprising development is the way that Social Security Secretary Harriet Harman is now firmly in the frame to be dropped.

One Brown insider - the camp with which she is firmly identified - sees her as a possible scapegoat for the lone parent benefit rebellion.

While admitting the whole government must share some of the blame for failing to prepare the ground for the welfare reforms, Harriet takes the lion's share.

The Minister's view is that because she was under pressure over her performance in the job, she was "panicked" into high-profile actions and statements to improve her profile, which backfired badly on her and the government as a whole.

While one long-term critic of Mrs Harman considers that her performance has improved recently as she got her act together, it is clear that she needs to continue to do so.

For in the damning words of one influential critic: "If the policy was to give gold coins to the poor, I wouldn't trust Harriet to sell it to the people."

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.