Political Focus, with Bill Jacobs

TONY BLAIR'S all-conquering New Labour government is facing its first real test - north of the border. While the Prime Minister's policy of wooing fickle Middle England has proved a resounding success, with unparalleled UK-wide opinion poll ratings, in its traditional Scottish heartlands the wheel appears to be coming off.

And a survey this week suggested that the Scottish National Party is ahead in the voting intentions for the new devolved Scottish Parliament, where elections take place in a year's time.

SNP leader Alex Salmond - while tongue in cheek adopting Mr Blair's "no complacency" mantra - is cock-a-hoop.

So, despite their posturing as putting the interests of the United Kingdom above everything else, is the Tory constitutional team which includes Ribble Valley MP Nigel Evans.

They are delighted their claim that introducing devolution would boost the Nationalists has proved correct.

The SNP are enjoying mocking two of the Cabinet Ministers generally considered a success.

After the resounding referendum "Double Yes" vote in Scotland, Secretary of State Donald Dewar was a Caledonian and New Labour hero. Since then as the SNP has relentlessly advanced - with the Sean Connery non-Knighthood debacle - he has become characterised as a weak figure under the orders of Mr Blair and his Middle England agenda.

A second target has been Defence Secretary George Robertson - a figure of growing stature in the Cabinet as his quiet start has given way to calm authority which has won over the armed services chiefs and kept the cost-cutting Treasury tanks off his military lawn.

Mr Salmond has recalled the then Shadow Scottish Secretary's claim that devolution would "kill Nationalism stone dead"- a prediction that now looks sick.

You may well ask what all this ferment and bother among the Celts has to do with the North-West.

First and foremost, it shows that Mr Blair's government does not have a totally charmed life.

But more importantly, it shows that when faced with an effective Opposition - which exists with the SNP North of Newcastle but not with the Tories in England - the government is vulnerable.

And if the separatist tide continues to grow in strength, the constitutional reform agenda - encompassing Wales, the House of Lords and regional government in England - which is the main radical element of the government's programme to distinguish its policies from the Tory administration that preceded it is in tatters.

The prospect of the break-up of the UK gives the Tories their main hope of redemption either side of the Border. In Scotland, presenting a distinctive pro-UK, anti-slippery slope to separatism agenda gives them a chance of hoovering up enough worried voters to become power brokers in the new Edinburgh Parliament.

In England, they are desperate to provoke an English backlash about the power of Scottish MPs to swing House of Commons votes on English matters like education and health, which they no longer have influence on in their own constituencies as because of the Scottish Assembly.

Mr Evans and his team believe that this is a constitutional perversion that will provide them with huge potential to produce anger among English voters - especially in the North - at Scotland's interfering in their affairs.

But both this issue - known as the "West Lothian Question" - and the SNP surge may backfire.

As I said recently, Mr Blair must start to deliver if he is to keep the support of the electorate.

If he fails to do this in Scotland he risks losing his core Old Labour support South of the Border. Also the fact that his promises that devolution would not break up the UK proved worthless might lose him his Old Tory converts in Middle England. The stakes are so high that already he has had extensive Downing Street talks with Mr Dewar to ensure that the entire battery of Cabinet big guns are deployed to ensure that, as so often in the past, the SNP bubble bursts in the voting booth.

But even if there is a resounding victory for Labour in the next May's Scottish Parliament election, the genie of the West Lothian Question still has to be answered.

And this may force a deeply reluctant Mr Blair into pressing ahead with the plans currently on the backburner for regional assemblies in England to square the constitutional circle.

The deep irony is that the SNP's success this week may do little for the cause of Scottish Independence but pave the way for a devolved regional Assembly in the North-West that will give the region's citizens the autonomy from rule by the City of London and the South-East of England that they have long craved.

And, accidentally, reinforce his reputation for delivering his promises both sides of the Border if Labour controls the new Edinburgh Parliament and devolves power in England away from London, thus delivering his coveted second term in government.

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