Serbia is a fearful test of West's resolve

For, were the West to back down from its threats or wash its hands of Kosovo, Belgrade's warlord Slobodan Milosevic would seize on this weakness as a mandate to slaughter even more innocent men, women and children there.

Too many have died already - many in unspeakable atrocities - as the brutal Milosevic has attempted to force Serbian hegemony and ethnic supremacy on the peoples of the former Yugoslav federation.

First, it was in Slovenia, then Croatia, then Bosnia and, now, Kosovo,

But as the bombs and missiles are prepared, there can be no doubt that this action, intended as a swift surgical strike to stop or bring down this brutal dictator, is also a dangerous move.

For it is one that might trigger what Tony Blair last night said it was designed to prevent - that of the whole festering Balkan region erupting again into chaos and conflict and the rest of Europe becoming engulfed.

This is because there can be no guarantee that air strikes alone will make Serbia back down and agree to the predominantly Albanian-peopled province of Kosovo once again having the autonomy that Belgrade seized from it 10 years ago. The failure of air attacks to chasten Saddam Hussein in Iraq tells of their limited power.

Where, then, might it end if this is the case?

In a token show of force by NATO, with the Kosovars then left to their fate?

Or in a continuing and escalating war - one which Tony Blair admits would take 100,000 troops on the ground and heavy casualties?

And then an already-disapproving Russia being sucked in as Serbia's ally?

The cause may be just - just as it was 60 years ago when the similarly expansionist and racist dictator Adolf Hitler had to be given the ultimatum of force by nations in defence of freedom.

But the portents are equally frightening.

And this may prove a fearful test of the West's resolve.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.