JUST AS one swallow does not make a summer, one mid-term by-election victory of the kind the Tories are celebrating today at Eddisbury does not clearly spell out a revival.

This after all was a traditional Tory stronghold - one which was not toppled in the great general election rout - but even though the party last night increased its majority by some 500 votes, the seat remains the marginal that Labour made it last time.

But if that shows that the government's appeal remains strong - and on this sort of performance every Labour MP at Westminster would remain secure - the result also suggests that the Conservative's wilt may have at last been cured.

For this was a seat that Labour clearly believed was winnable.

And even with a massive majority that made the outcome at Eddisbury superfluous, the party still poured in the big guns - even the Prime Minister himself - in a bid to achieve that.

It also evidently expected that its proposed ban on fox-hunting would woo the constituency's urban voters while hoping that accusations against Tory Party treasurer, tax exile Michael Ashcroft would add to their haul of votes.

That the Tories did not crumble was an achievement; that they increased their majority on a much-reduced turnout was a bonus that is bound to encourage the view that they are off the floor where they have been until this summer. For this result, if taken with the last month's Tory comeback in the local elections and the party scoring well in the European elections over the threat to the pound, points to a sequence that indicates that its fortunes have begun to rally.

If, as the durability of the Labour vote implies, the government's basic popularity remains intact, this upturn for the Tories also signifies that they now at least have a couple of policies the voters prefer - those on Europe and car ownership.

Indeed, in signalling only the day before the by-election that a referendum on scrapping the pound might be delayed even beyond the next parliament and from reports today that Prime Minister wants curbs on cars shelved, it is clear the government is concerned that the Tories are ahead on these points.

One swallow may not make a summer, but now the sun seems at last to be peeping through the clouds for the Conservatives.

Converted for the new archive on 14 July 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.