First strike is crucial

THE first goal in any game is often crucial.

But for Blackburn Rovers on Sunday, it's absolutely critical to their chances of winning the first derby clash with Burnley in 17 years.

After the miserly antics of Arsenal under George Graham in the early Nineties, now Clarets chief Stan Ternent is fast becoming the Scrooge of the First Division -- the undisputed King of the 1-0 win.

Seven times already this season, his platoon of artful dodgers have picked the pockets of unsuspecting opponents, escaping each time with a 1-0 win.

And, though the strategy is simple, it's devastatingly effective.

In Steve Davis, Ian Cox and Mitchell Thomas, Ternent has assembled one of the meanest defensive units in the division.

So the message couldn't be clearer for Graeme Souness and Company -- go one-nil down against Burnley and you will be left with a mountain to climb.

The form book certainly suggests there'll be goals, with only five of the 85 League and Cup games between the two clubs ending in a 0-0 stalemate.

For their part, Rovers do have attacking flair in abundance with the likes of Damien Duff and Matt Jansen both capable of tearing apart the most resilient of rearguards.

But what must be causing Souness a few sleepless nights is his side's current lack of killer instinct.

In the last few weeks alone, Rovers' wastefulness in the final third has cost the club vital points against struggling sides like Gillingham, Tranmere and QPR.

And, unless a solution can be found, then Rovers' play-off hopes could disappear in a puff of smoke.

Mark Hughes must be a certain starter upfront at Turf Moor on Sunday.

His reputation alone should give Rovers a pyschological edge and his aggressive qualities will be a vital commodity in the bear-pit atmosphere of a local derby.

Souness's predicament, however, is who to play alongside him. Does he go with the silky skills of Jansen or the more physical approach of Marcus Bent?

I, personally, would go for Bent in this one.

Derbies are notoriously scrappy affairs and the pace and tempo will hardly be conducive to Jansen's precocious talents.

But Souness has other selection posers too.

With Henning Berg now back at Manchester United who will partner Craig Short at the back?

Of the three options available -- Christian Dailly, Marlon Broomes and Martin Taylor -- Dailly's extra experience must give him the edge.

And will there be a slot for Craig Hignett?

The former Barnsley man will be the first to admit he has yet to produce his best form in a blue and white shirt.

But he remains a matchwinner on his day and Rovers showed a chronic lack of imagination in his absence against QPR.

Souness must strike the right balance between grit and guile.

With David Dunn certain to be restored to a midfield overloaded with creativity, Rovers simply cannot afford to be too cavalier going forward.

Consequently, if the hardworking Damien Johnson returns after injury, he could yet prove a more viable option on the right.

Man for man, though, I believe Rovers have a clear edge in terms of talent available.

And, if Souness can come up with the right blend, then they should come out on top.

If Burnley do have a weakness, it could be down the left should Lee Briscoe fail to return after injury.

But Rovers also have concerns in that department due to the absence of the vastly under-rated Stig Inge Bjornebye.

Whoever fills his shoes will be charged with the task of marking dangerman Glen Little and that could well be a battle which decides the overall outcome. But if Rovers score first, I believe they'll have enough quality to see the job through.

If Burnley make the breakthrough, though, Graeme Souness and Co could be in for a frustrating afternoon.

ANDY NEILD'S PREDICTION: BURNLEY 0 ROVERS 1