IS East Lancashire on the brink of recession? Are we about to witness the terminal decline of manufacturing, with companies going under and thousands of people being thrown out of work?

Has the economic recovery which has brought about record employment come off the rails?

I think not.

While some national commentators are predicting widespread job losses, falling order books and a slump in export sales, the picture in East Lancashire is less clear-cut.

There is no doubt that some manufacturers are having a difficult time thanks to a strong pound, high interest rates and an American-led global slowdown. Manufacturing in the UK is officially in recession. Yes, there have been some redundancies in recent months.

The impact of foot and mouth disease has spread from tourism and the rural economy to mainstream industry which has compounded the difficulties.

But while every job lost is a personal tragedy for the individual involved, companies are still recruiting throughout the area.

BAE Systems has announced 260 jobs losses among secretarial and support staff at its Lancashire. But at the same time, it unveiled plans to recruit 450 engineers by Christmas.

Companies such as the French-owned Hurel Hispano in Burnley are investing heavily in plant and equipment to cope with growing order books.

The East Lancashire economy is nothing if not resilient. Unemployment continues to fall and is at its lowest level for more than 30 years. Manufacturing remains the cornerstone of the area's economy, employing 35 per cent of the working population - double the national average.

The last recession in the early 1990s led to a massive shake-up in East Lancashire's industrial scene. The companies that survived emerged stronger and less likely to succumb to short-term difficulties. Companies had to learn to manage change - lessons that are proving invaluable today. Enterprise and innovation have become key words that influence the business agenda.

Throughout this first issue of this supplement, there are countless articles on the successes of businesses in East Lancashire. Companies are investing for the future. They are winning orders and awards for technological achievement and commercial success.

While some organisations like the Chamber of Commerce insists that manufacturing is under threat and is demanding Government action to protect the country's industrial base.

A counter-argument has been aired by Stuart Whitehead, director of Blackburn-based recruitment specialists Henry Court which operates throughout the UK. He believes talk of a recession is no more than 'scaremongering' from the national media.

"Bad news always creates hysteria and we are seeing ever more overblown predictions of job cuts," he said. "The good news is that it won't be that simple.

"Companies which are streamlining and employing fewer people are becoming more productive because of it, so the companies to which they outsource are still creating many more opportunities.

"A perfect example is the automotive industry which is an undeniable growth area. As car makers shed non-core operations, the media reports 'job cuts' when, in fact, almost all the workers will merely be changing their jobs. The employment market is certainly undergoing a change in emphasis, but not a downturn in prosperity. In the industries that we serve, which includes the 'beleaguered' manufacturing sector, there is still a continuous demand for skilled workers.

"We are seeing the lowest unemployment figures since the war, but the national media predict gloom because the South East, where they are all based, is indeed suffering a lull."

Organisations like the CBI will do doubt disagree. A sub-regional economy is a complex thing, influenced by local, national and international factors. Economists and commentators will argue endlessly whether or not there is a recession.

What leads me to take the optimist's viewpoint is the survival earlier this month of Darwen wallpaper manufacturer Zen Wallcoverings. Cashflow problems led to company into receivership in June and a month later a quarter of the employees were made redundant. Hardly a story of corporate success you might think.

However, a management buy-out has secured the immediate future of the company and its remaining 72 workers. After two months in receivership, managing director Graham Hayhurst has won the support of the company's customers and suppliers to continue production.

Ten years ago, such a recovery would not have been possible.