Twiston-Davies yard can triumph in National

BEAU, partnered by big race specialist Carl Llewellyn and bought this week by millionaire businessmanTrevor Hemmings, can bring some much-needed relief to the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard by winning the Aintree Grand National, the world's greatest steeplechase.

In naming Beau as the winner I may very well by flying in the face of a whole series of contradictions, not the least being that Twiston-Davies has had, for him at any rate, a desperate season.

His horses have struggled to make any impact at all and one wouldn't need expert or inside knowledge to conclude that the dreaded virus, which seems indiscriminate in its choice of whom and where to strike, has savaged the Twiston-Davies yard.

Good trainers don't suddenly become bad ones and there are enough 'pots' in the Twiston-Davies trophy cabinet, including a Grand National won with Earth Summit, to substantiate the view that he is a very good trainer.

Beau's recent record -- he hasn't won since his triumph in the Whitbread two years ago -- suggest his powers are on the wane but I won't concede that point. The handicapper put a stop to his triumphs after some impressive victories and Beau can't have escaped the general ill-health of the stable inmates.

However, three winners over the Easter meetings indicated that perhaps at long last Twiston-Davies has turned the corner. And it's worth noting that Llewellyn is adamant that Beau was cruising when he blundered his way out of contention at the 17th in last year's race, unshipping his rider three fences later.

With Tony McCoy in record-busting form, it seems highly likely that his legion of loyal followers will force his mount Blowing Wind into favouritism.

The horse comes here on the back of a game win at the Cheltenham Festival and he was third in the National last year, albeit finishing miles behind the winner, Red Marauder, on desperate ground.

You simply can't dismiss anything McCoy rides as he is such a determined and talented jockey but will Blowing Wind stay this marathon trip? At his current odds, I wouldn't be tempted to speculate, though both McCoy and champion trainer Martin Pipe are adamant he will go close.

Smarty, second last year when he ran a blinder, represents the Pitman family whose Aintree exploits -- dad Richard, mum Jenny and son Mark have all suffered glory and pain in large dollops round here -- would fill several books. They have in fact! This year the horse will be ridden by Tom Scudamore, son of former champion jockey Peter and grandson of National winning rider Michael. So the horse has enough family recommendations to win this running backwards.

He won't of course -- run backwards that is -- but he has been trained specifically for the race, stays the trip and will give his backers a good run for their money.

So will Samuel Wilderspin, a tough, genuine, staying chaser, running better than ever this season. He has never fallen in a race, which indicates that while he might not be the quickest horse in the field, he'll tackle the formidable Aintree fences with more assurance than most.

All he has to do is try to avoid some of the inevitable casualties. If he does, and young Scudamore will probably be told to hack him round on the outside until the race gets serious, then I can see Samuel Wilderspin at least reaching a place.

The Irish strongly fancy David's Boy, winner of last year's Irish National and trained by legendary punter Tony Martin. The horse has been significantly supported, as has Ad Hoc, the mount of the exceptional jockey Paul Carberry. I wouldn't put off anyone who fancies either and, given clear rounds, they must surely both run big races.

There are any number of other candidates with claims but you can't back 'em all and my money will be on Beau with a saver on Samuel Wilderspin.

Good luck to you all and to the brave men and horses who make this race such a wonderful spectacle. Let's hope they all get home safe and sound.