What would war mean for us? DESPITE widespread public unease, Prime Minister Tony Blair is seemingly intent on a war with Iraq.

Reporters IAN SINGLETON and THERESA ROBSON assess the impact of a conflict on East Lancashire's economy, race relations, tourism and petrol prices, and ask the views of soldiers, war veterans, politicians and peace campaigners.

Tourism

HOLIDAYMAKERS in East Lancashire may choose to visit destinations in the UK, rather than travel abroad, if war breaks out, tourism bosses have revealed.

Gordon Gott, managing director of Accrington-based Fraser Eagle Worldchoice, said: "It's probably a little too early to accurately predict how speculation about the conflict will affect the travel trade.

"At the moment, the overall level of Fraser Eagle Worldchoice holiday bookings doesn't appear to have been affected.

"We have, however, noticed a few changes in the type of holidays people are choosing, compared with last year.

"For example, coaching holiday bookings through our sister company, Departures, have experienced an increase of more than 50 per cent and bookings for cruises are noticeably more popular.

"These trends could be related to any number of reasons, however, not necessarily speculation about the situation in Iraq."

A spokesperson for the Association of British Travel Agents said: "We are very concerned about the situation and decided to conduct a survey in December. One question we asked was whether a war would prevent people travelling abroad.

"Only one per cent of respondents said that under no circumstances would they travel, which was quite reassuring, but 15 per cent of people said they would not book their holiday until the situation had resolved itself. That has been reflected in bookings in January, our busiest month, which were down between 15 and 20 per cent."

In 1991, before and during the Gulf War, holiday bookings in the UK fell by 60 per cent.

"It is too early to say what affect the current problems at the airports will have. The measures have only been in place for a couple of days, but clearly it is not going to encourage people to go on a plane," the ABTA spokesman added.

Petrol

PETROL prices are already at their highest level since the petrol crisis of 2000 - and they could be set to rise even more if war breaks out.

That does not bode well for local hauliers who claim their businesses could be seriously affected by a hike in petrol prices.

Dr Marcel Cohen, from the Imperial College Business School in London, who has written widely on the petrol market, said: "The link between petrol prices and the conflict will be the rise of crude oil, which is dependent on people's anticipation of shortages.

"There has been a lot of talk about a war premium, but I think the suggestion of 15p a gallon is on the upper side of the price increase and I don't think it will be as bad as that.

"Whatever the increase, let's say 10p a gallon, it will only last for a very short period of time and after the war, within a couple of weeks, I imagine competition would force the price down."

But Michael Kenyon, director of Blackburn haulage firm Kenyon's, which employs 70 drivers, said his company could only withstand a 15p a gallon hike for a couple of weeks before drastic measures had to be taken.

Fuel is our biggest cost and any increase would have a dramatic impact on our business. We use up to twenty-five thousand litres of fuel a week and our margins are already stretched.

"We could only withstand that kind of increase for a few weeks, before we had to start passing on the cost, and we are waiting with bated breath to see what happens."

Race Relations

THE possibility of war with Iraq has raised concerns about race relations in the area in the event of a backlash against ethnic minorities.

Blackburn councillor Imtiaz Patel, who represents Shear Brow and is a member of the UK Peace Mission, organised a multi-faith get-together of 1,000 people at Jan's Conference Centre, Blackburn, to take a stand against war.

He is concerned that the views of the general public are being ignored by Tony Blair and that local Muslims may face a backlash.

He said: "The political figures have to play a leading role to show that the problems in the Middle East have nothing to do with Islam and religion, but with political problems. I am feeling tension because of the ongoing bombardment in the media about Muslim people and that won't help in terms of race relations.

"The coverage about the connection between terrorism and Islam and Muslims is not helping, because there is no connection whatsoever. If you look at the history of Muslims in the past 40 years, how many times have you heard people from that community expressing anti-Government sentiments?

"Seven out of ten people of every faith are very concerned about the present situation with Iraq. We need to informally and formally organise regular get-togethers with people of all faiths and have open debate."

Jo Harding, of Ribble Valley peace and justice group Ribble Action, added: "A war will aggravate race relations in East Lancashire at a particularly sensitive time when the British National Party is active."

Burnley Bishop John Goddard, who is a member of the Commission for Race and Justice, for Churches Together Great Britain and Ireland, urged Tony Blair and George Bush to pursue every peaceful means possible to resolve the growing conflict.

He said: "Some people might see war as an opportunity to create fear and the ethnic minorities might become targets for people's anger. I encourage all people of goodwill to work together in building up friendships and respect for one another across the community."

Politicians

MANY East Lancashire Labour MPs keen to avert military action fear the decision to go to war has already been taken.

Pendle MP Gordon Prentice, who quizzed Tony Blair at a meeting of Labour MPs, said: "MPs from across the Parliamentary Labour Party are demanding their voice is heard before any military action involving UK forces.

"There is a strong belief that a decision to attack Iraq has already been taken by the United States and that the balloon will go up in early March.

"It would be an absolute outrage if the Prime Minister took the UK to war using Royal prerogative powers. It would split the Labour Party.

"We must demand a vote - and get it - before and not after the bombs start falling. I want Hans Blix and his weapons inspectors to have the time they need to carry out their work, with no artificial deadlines imposed."

Burnley MP Peter Pike, who has put in a written Commons question on the Iraq crisis, said: "I still continue to be concerned and do not feel that the case has yet been proven for an attack to take place. I continue to urge the Prime Minister not to be stampeded by President Bush."

Chorley's MP Lindsay Hoyle also tackled Tony Blair on the issue during Commons Question Time.