BURY could lose one or more of its 14 secondary schools due to falling pupil numbers.

Education chiefs have embarked on a strategic review of secondary school provision across the borough and will consider closing schools as part of a cost cutting exercise.

Forecasts show the number of pupils at secondary schools will fall from 11,955 this year to 10,196 by 2013. Since schools are funded on the basis of pupil numbers, the numbers on each school roll can significantly affect the ability of the school to deliver a broad and balanced curriculum on budget.

With this in mind, the review will look at whether the borough should have fewer but larger secondary schools, if the LEA should continue to make provision for pupils from outside the area and whether schools are located appropriately to meet the needs of pupils across the borough.

A similar review of primary schools last year will result in Affetside Primary School and St Paul's CE Primary School, Ramsbottom, closing at the end of this summer term, Fishpool Infant School and St Chad's CE Junior School in Bury merging, Radcliffe Infant and Radcliffe Junior School merging to become Radcliffe Primary School and the closure of St Mark's CE primary in Bury with pupils transferring to St John's CE primary.

The closure of Affetside caused an outcry and members of the learning communities scrutiny commission, which met on Wednesday to discuss the future of secondary schools, are preparing themselves for a possible repeat.

"Do we need all the secondary schools? Would it not be better to have one school per area? We have got to aim for new buildings" said Margaret Wild, a representative of the Governors Forum.

"We will no doubt meet with animosity, but if we are convinced, we must convince the people of Bury that this is the way forward."

In the short term, the first part of the review may need to be completed before the end of this year so that education chiefs can take its findings into consideration when submitting a capital bid for up to £150 million.

The full review may take as long as three years as it will have to take into account new powers given to governing bodies to enlarge successful schools from this year and the impact of changes to the admissions process from 2004. Effectively, all school place preferences expressed by parents would be treated equally but in order to increase their chances of securing a place at their first preference school, oversubscribed schools would have to be allowed to expand. Parrenthorn High School and Philips High School have already expressed an interest in increasing their size.

Paul Cooke, head of schools' planning and management, said: "As with the primary school review, the initial consultation provides detailed information but does not seek to reach conclusions ahead of the discussions which will take place before September. A paper to Executive Committee will then be prepared to enable initial decisions to be taken so that the review can move forward on a larger timescale."