"DERBY have just got a winner." Six little words that pierced the heart as Burnley huffed and puffed their way to an agonising defeat against Watford on Monday.

It's at times like this you seek divine intervention - results elsewhere to tilt things back in your favour.

Typically, no-one else was in a generous mood. Wins for Crewe, Gillingham, Rotherham and, thanks to a late ricocheted own-goal, Derby, all added to the gloom surrounding the Hornets' Turf Moor triumph.

It all leaves Clarets fans scrambling for the calculators while the remaining games can be counted on one hand.

At such times, supporters often need the comforting shoulder of a statistic to rely on. Well here's one to mull over as you wade your way through the endless permutations.

Since the inception of the new Division One in 1992, only two teams have ever been relegated with more than 50 points to their name.

Way back in 1994, Birmingham slid into Division Two with 51 points from their 46 games. Then, in 1996, Millwall suffered an identical fate with 52 to their total.

Since then, the magical, albeit theoretical, 50-point safety barrier has proved exactly that.

In 1997 it was Grimsby occupying the final relegation spot with 46 and a year later Manchester City incredibly dropped with just 48 points to their name.

It was the turn of Bury in 1999 (47), in 2000 it was Walsall (46) while 2001 saw Huddersfield fall with 48 and 12 months later Crewe's 49 proved insufficient.

Finally, last season, Sheffield Wednesday bit the dust with only 46 points.

Of course (time to grab that comfort blanket again) past statistics count for nothing - and Clarets boss Stan Ternent is at pains to point out that 53 is his own comfort zone.

However, despite Derby's late winner against already doomed Bradford taking them to 46 with four games still to play, I still believe 50 will suffice.

A glance at all the remaining fixtures shows so many teams still have to play relegation rivals - and if recent trends are followed, all will take points off each other.

The down side to all this is that a win against Watford on Easter Monday and we'd all now be relaxing, having gorged on chocolate and overdosed on euphoria.

Instead the pain lingers on. Many will already be looking nervously towards next week and the visit of Wimbledon (then Derby) for salvation.

But with nerves fraying at home, especially with only two points taken from the last 12, it's away games that could hold the key.

Ninian Park is an identikit of the venue Burnley have travelled to in adversity this season and ground out vital points. West Ham, Sunderland and Nottingham Forest are all prime examples. Teams with expectant and passionate home support silenced by Claret steel.

Cut another down to size and I reckon the calculators can be put away.