With the General Election drawing closer, the Lancashire Telegraph's local democracy reporter Bill Jacobs assesses the election state of play in historically marginal Rossendale and Darwen.
Wily Conservative Sir Jake Berry must be wondering whether the 9,522 majority he has painstakingly built up since winning the Rossendale and Darwen seat in 2010 will be enough to withstand the predicted Labour surge in July 4's General Election.
He will be pleased he is no longer part of the government, and hoping that being a close friend and ally of Boris Johnson will help keep the Reform UK wolves from his door.
The father of three will also be wondering whether his brief stint as chair of the party during Liz Truss's disastrous 50 days as Prime Minister will do him more good with wavering Tories than harm, with uncommitted voters feeling the cost of living pinch.
The Liverpool-born lawyer will also be hoping his stint as Northern Powerhouse minister will give him some local credit in the political bank.
Labour candidate Andy MacNae - a former Rossendale Council regeneration boss - has already shown he has teeth by seeing off former Blackburn MP and cabinet minister Jack Straw's son Will to secure the nomination.
Sir Jake knows he is in a hard fight after local election results in May saw Labour make big gains in both Rossendale and Darwen.
This probably explains his criticism of the Rossendale empty homes scandal and repeated references to Blackburn with Darwen borough as 'Blackburn Council'.
Sir Jake will also be pleased that the Parliamentary Boundary Commission left the predominantly Tory voting Lower Darwen in his constituency which could be crucial in a closer than expected contest.
Reform UK's Daniel Matchett will be seeking to eat into both men's votes by exploiting discontent over the implementation of Brexit, while Workers Party of Britain candidate Tayab Ali will seek to exploit left-wing Labour supporters' unhappiness at leader Sir Keir Starmer's centrist attitudes and stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Throw in Green Bob Bauld and Liberal Democrat Rowan Fitton and the race for third - or even second - place looks interesting.
Making his pitch to voters, Sir Jake said: "Since 2019 we’ve made huge progress with £243 million of new funding that I’ve secured for Rossendale and Darwen.
"New emergency beds at Royal Blackburn Hospital and record numbers of doctors and nurses reducing NHS waiting times.
"Millions to transform our towns, improve our markets and cut congestion.
"Eight new schools built or opening soon across Rossendale and Darwen since 2010.
"Bringing banking back to Darwen and Bacup with new hubs.
"Tackling crime and anti-social behaviour with 612 new police officers.
"Inflation is down, the economy is back on track and locally our area is getting record investment."
Mr MacNae, who is relying on the 'time for change card', said: "A stable Labour government and a growing economy will give us the platform for the changes we need to see here.
"My personal priorities include the state of our roads and road safety, early years education and school standards, local transport including better bus and rail links, bringing new jobs here and ensuring we benefit from Labour's industrial strategy, working with councils on improving our town centres whilst addressing crime and anti-social behaviour.
"There is a lot to do and it will take time to repair the damage done to our services but I will work tirelessly to deliver change for Rossendale and Darwen."
For the Greens, Mr Bauld said: "This is voters' chance to do it differently - to tell the main parties that enough is enough; tell them we deserve better and are not going to be made to fear voting with our conscience this time.
"The Green Party manifesto is full of radical, fair and realistic policies to tax the rich, spreading the wealth of this country to those that need an NHS that works; utilities that plough profits into improving our infrastructure, housing and public transport; policies that help solve the cost of living crisis for many and cut down our emissions in the climate emergency we are facing."
Mr Matchett, with an eye on the local issues that could boost his vote, and a starkly different take on environmental issues, said: "I am committed to addressing the critical issues in Rossendale and Darwen, such as the cost of living, effective allocation of government Levelling Up funds, getting to the bottom of the empty homes scandal, and improving NHS services.
"Our policies focus on practical solutions like increasing the tax-free allowance to £20,000 and lowering energy costs by scrapping Net Zero policies that make people poorer.
"Our policies commit to supporting frontline health and social care workers. As a mental health nurse, I am used to solving the issues of others.
"Local residents are still concerned with the Edenfield development. The roads in our area are a disgrace, and potholes are a constant frustration."
Mr Fitton said: "I’m standing in this election to offer a real alternative to voters in Rossendale and Darwen.
"Whether it is our plan to save our NHS, hold water companies accountable for sewage dumping, or end the cost-of-living crisis, I am proud of the bold solutions being proposed by the Liberal Democrats on the key issues facing people.
"I got involved in politics because I was tired of the back-and-forth bickering of the largest parties and seeing nothing change."
Mr Ali, who has already been in trouble over 'offensive' Facebook posts, said: " I believe in the importance of public ownership of key industries, the provision of decent housing for all, and the protection of our NHS.
"I am committed to fighting for workers’ rights, advocating for a living wage, and ensuring everyone has access to quality education and training.
"I am dedicated to promoting peace and cooperation on the international stage, and I am opposed to imperialist wars and interventions."
If Sir Jake is to hang on it will take every ounce of his wiliness honed by 14 years as an MP and several ministerial jobs to do so - and if he does it will likely be on a thin thread.
Polling aggregator Electoral Calculus currently gives Labour an 87 per cent chance of taking the seat, which will be crucial if it wants to rebuild the Red Wall across the North.
The full list of candidates is: Ali Tayab - Workers Party of Britain; Bob Bauld – Green Party; Sir Jake Berry – Conservative Party; Rowan Fitton – Liberal Democrat; Andy MacNae – Labour; and Daniel Matchett – Reform UK.
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