How 2024 East Lancs general election battleground shapes up

Hyndburn, Rossendale and Darwen, and Pendle are known as 'bellwether seats', which often reflect which party will form the government, so their results will be keenly watched as the count goes on following the national poll.

With a YouGov opinion poll earlier this month predicting Tory wipeout in the area, Sir Keir Starmer must be hoping to win all six to restore the so-called Red Wall.

But there is a spectre haunting Labour - Gaza.

The fall-out of the Hamas/Israel conflict has seen mass resignations of councillors in three of East Lancashire's boroughs which - along with redrawn Parliamentary constituencies and an unusually large number of candidates - make the final results harder to call than usual.

Blackburn has been a Labour stronghold since the 1940s, and was the only seat to resist Boris Johnson's blue 'Let's Get Brexit Done' tide in 2019. Defending MP Kate Hollern must be hoping having eight opponents will split the non-Labour vote.

The six people hoping to be re-elected

Four of the candidates are making the conflict in Gaza their main campaign issue.

The Workers Party of Britain's Craig Murray, Independent Adnan Hussain (backed by the 4BwD group, who in May 2's local polls went from Labour Gaza rebels to the borough council's main opposition party) and former Tory councillor Altaf 'Tiger' Patel, and independent Natasha Shah, are all seeking to capitalise on dissatisfaction with how the conflict has been handled by the two major parties.

Mrs Hollern will be seeking to put the cost of living and the state of the NHS at the centre of the election battle.

In neighbouring Hyndburn, defending Tory MP Sara Britcliffe will be hoping to hold her seat despite Labour taking control of the borough council last month.

She will also be hoping the dramatic 2022 split in the party locally, and fallout over deselecting former MP Graham Jones in favour of Blackpool councillor Sarah Smith will give her a chink of opportunity to squeeze through back to Westminster.

Rossendale and Darwen's Tory candidate Sir Jake Berry has no such Gaza Labour split bonus and saw his main opponent party in Labour make big gains on May 2 on both wings of his constituency.

With redrawn wards, Labour dominated elections in Rossendale, and also made gains in Darwen at the local elections.

Mr Berry wants to make the contest about local issues like potholes and government Levelling Up grants to the main towns in his constituency.

Westminster could see some new faces next month

In Burnley, Antony Higginbotham - the town's first Tory MP for more than a century and 'Red Wall' demolition poster boy in 2019 - is hoping the Labour Gaza split, and former Liberal Democrat MP Gordon Birtwistle's candidacy, could also give him a very unlikely lifeline.

In the heavily redrawn Ribble Valley seat Tory Nigel Evans - its MP for 32 years and a House of Commons deputy speaker - must be hoping familiarity and his long-standing hostility to the European Union breeds affection and votes rather than contempt.

Pollsters give him the most realistic chance of remaining the area's MP, although he is still predicted to lose, however the loss of Clitheroe from his constituency and gain of areas from the now-abolished seat of Wyre and Preston North - which was held by the respected former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace - could give him a boost.

In the new Pendle and Clitheroe seat health minister Andrew Stephenson is also relying on the impact of Gaza.

In April a mass resignation of Labour councillors over the party's position on the conflict left it with no representatives on Pendle Council and short of experienced campaigners.

But he can rest assured that Labour's former police inspector Jonathan Hinder and Lib Dem NHS consultant Anna Fryer will be putting crime and health along with the cost of living crisis as the centre of the new seat's political agenda.

What impact the liberal and left-leaning Clitheroe will have on the outcome in the new seat remains to be seen, and again Labour will be hoping Gaza-focused independents splitting that vote works in its favour.

With a bullish and now Nigel Farage-led Reform UK and the Green Party fielding candidates in all six constituencies hoping to pick up Brexit-ultra and environmentally-conscious voters respectively, their impact on the results next month should not be underestimated.

Their performance could actually be crucial to who wins in one or more of the final polls.

Constituency profiles

Blackburn

• Major boundary changes: None but loses Blackamoor to Rossendale and Darwen.
• Key issues: Gaza, cost of living, NHS, crime and policing.
• 2019 election: Labour's Kate Hollern defended the seat on slightly different boundaries with a majority of 18,304.

Candidates:

• Kate Hollern – Labour Party;
• Adnan Hussain - Independent;
• Jamie McGowan - Conservative Party;
• Denise Morgan - Green Party;
• Craig Murray – Workers Party of Britain;
• Tiger Patel – Independent
• Natasha Shah - Independent;
• Tommy Temperley – Reform UK;
• Adam Waller-Slack – Liberal Democrats.

Hyndburn

• Major boundary changes: None.
• Key issues: Cost of living, government Levelling Up grants, NHS, Labour candidate selection process.
• 2019 election: Conservative candidate Sara Britcliffe took the seat from Labour with a majority of 2,951.

Candidates:

• Sara Britcliffe – Conservative Party;
• Shabir Fazal - Green Party;
• Richard Oakley – Reform UK;
• Sarah Smith - Labour Party
• Beth Waller-Slack – Liberal Democrats. 

Rossendale and Darwen

• Major boundary changes; None but gains Blackamoor from Blackburn.
• Key issues: Cost of living, government Levelling Up cash, the Empty Homes fiasco, NHS.
• 2019 election: Conservative candidate Sir Jake Berry since 2010 defended the seat with a 9,522 vote majority.

Candidates:

• Ali Tayab - Workers Party of Britain;
• Bob Bauld – Green Party;
• Sir Jake Berry – Conservative Party;
• Rowan Fitton – Liberal Democrats;
• Andy MacNae – Labour;
• Daniel Matchett – Reform UK.

Ribble Valley

• Major boundary changes: In the east of the constituency, the Chatburn, East Whalley, Read and Simonstone, Edisford and Low Moor, Littlemoor, Primrose, Sabden, Salthill, St. Mary’s, Whalley and Painter Wood, and Wiswell and Barrow wards are all moved into the new Pendle and Clitheroe seat.
• On the western side, the Farington East and Farington West wards will move into the South Ribble constituency.  The new Ribble Valley seat acquires the Preston City Council wards of Greyfriars, Sharoe Green, Preston Rural North and Preston Rural East.
• Key issues: Cost of living; pensions; health and social care; farming and rural affairs.
• 2019 election: Conservative candidate Nigel Evans defended the old Ribble Valley seat including Clitheroe and all of Whalley with a majority of 18,439.

Candidates:

• Qasim Ajmi - Independent;
• John Carroll – Reform UK;
• Maya Ellis – Labour Party;
• Nigel Evans – Conservative Party;
• Caroline Montague - Green Party;
• John Potter – Liberal Democrats.

Burnley

• Major boundary changes: The Brierfield East and Clover Hill and Brierfield West and Reedley wards join the Burnley seat from the current Pendle constituency.
• Key issues: Gaza, NHS, cost of living, crime and policing.
• 2019 election: Conservative candidate Antony Higginbotham took the seat from Labour with a majority of 1,352.

Candidates:

• Gordon Birtwistle – Liberal Democrats;
• Mitchell Cryer - Independent;
• Rayyan Fiass - Independent;
• Antony Higginbotham – Conservative;
• Jack Launer - Green;
• Nathan McCollum - Reform UK;
• David Roper - Independent
• Oliver Ryan – Labour and Co-operative Party. 

Pendle and Clitheroe 

• Major boundary changes: The Brierfield East and Clover Hill and Brierfield West and Reedley wards depart for the Burnley constituency.
• The Chatburn, East Whalley, Read and Simonstone, Edisford and Low Moor, Littlemoor, Primrose, Sabben, Salthill, St. Mary’s, Whalley and Painter Wood, and Wiswell and Barrow wards all join from the current Ribble Valley seat.
• Key issues: NHS, Gaza, cost of living, crime and policing.
• 2019 election: Conservative candidate Andrew Stephenson defended the old Pendle seat with a majority of 6,168.

Candidates:

• Victoria Fletcher – Reform UK;
• Anna Fryer - Liberal Democrats;
• Syed Hashmi - Workers Party of Britain;
• Jonathan Hinder – Labour;
• Tony Johnson - Independent;
• Zulfikar Khan Independent;
• Lex Kristan - Green Party;
• Andrew Stephenson – Conservative Party;
• Christopher Thompson - Rejoin EU.