By Dominic Harrison, Blackburn with Darwen Council public health director

ENGLAND is at risk of needing to move to 'Plan B' controls which could include a ‘working from home’ directive.

This could suppress the demand for local goods and services.

Higher vaccination rates, along with natural immunity from previous infection, will reduce this risk.

Vaccination rates may affect the number of jobs many local economies can sustain over the next six months – particularly in small and medium sized businesses.

The reason is that if we continue avoidably high rates of Covid transmission and hospitalisation into the winter, the government may need to take additional control measures to save lives.

The Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, the Intensive Care Society, the British Medical Association and NHS Providers are all now advising government to move to some 'Plan B' control measures as soon as possible.

But the government is worried about economic impacts and still uncertain as to what may happen next to case rates.

Modelling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests the current rising wave may start to fall before the end of November.

They say the rise in numbers of school aged children infected will not be sustained, as more become naturally immune from continued infection.

Unconfirmed reports of leaked Treasury estimates also suggest that if we had to move to 'Plan B' measures until the end of March 2022, this could cost the economy up to £18billion.

However, other experts suggest the LSHTM modelling may underestimate seasonal effects.

For instance, as of more of us spend time indoors in close proximity over autumn and winter, one Covid case in a household often translates into whole households being infected.

Either way, preventing the need for further controls will depend on us keeping an equilibrium.

This will need to match rising case and hospitalisation rates and the waning of vaccination immunity in those over 60 and clinically vulnerable who have not yet had their booster jab, with the continuing uptake of vaccination – especially in children.

The data signals on all of this is very mixed.

On Monday, the English national seven day case rate was up again 21 per cent at 466 per 100,000. The North-West average weekly case rate rise was up six per cent at 460 per 100,000 and some areas of Lancashire are experiencing above average seven day case rate rises.

Preston was up 25 per centy at 439 per 100,000 and Ribble Valley up 24 per cent at 588.

Blackburn with Darwen remained at its relatively low level of case rate of 311, but this had also gone up 14 per cent in the last seven days.

Whilst booster jabs have now apparently been given to 50 per cent of those currently eligible in the over-50’s cohort – about 21 per cent of the total target group for the booster, uptake in pregnant women and children aged 12 to 15 years is not good. Scotland for instance have vaccinated over 50 per cent of 12 to 15 year olds but England is still only at about 20 per cent.

Clearly, the NHS needs further investment in vaccination capacity to deliver more rapid catch–ups for the unvaccinated, boosters for over-50’s, and first single jabs for 12 to15-year-olds.

But that will not fix it if not enough of us turn up for our jab!

If you do have family or friends who are in vaccine eligible groups and who have not yet come forward, now is the time to start seriously nagging them.

It’s not just about saving lives – getting vaccinated may also save local jobs.