SIX thousand, four hundred and seventy-nine. That is the number of people who have tested positive for the deadly coronavirus in Blackburn with Darwen since the start of the pandemic in March.
There is no doubt that those living in the borough have been among the hardest hit by restrictions and lockdowns over the last few months as areas in East Lancashire have regularly found themselves at the top of the coronavirus infection rate table. But what is the full picture?
According to the data used by Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council, 6,479 people have tested positive for the coronavirus over the last seven months – this is roughly equal to 41 people out of every 1000 that live in the borough.
In the 7 days to the 24th of October 1167 people tested positive for COVID, which represents a weekly rate of 783.5 cases per 100,000 residents.
In the week ending 24th of October, 19.1 per cent of tests taken by residents were positive.
Where are the cases?
The table below shows the most recent data for the number of cases in each ward of Blackburn with Darwen in the seven days to October 24.
It also shows the most recent seven day rate of cases per 100,000 population to compare with the Blackburn with Darwen rate.
The data for each ward shows that all but one ward has an infection rate of more than 500 cases per 100,000 people, and that the seven day rate for all wards is now 784 cases per 100,000 people.
Blackburn with Darwen Wards
Total Cases
Rate in seven days to 9/10/20
Cases in seven days to 16/10/20
Rate in seven days to 16/10/20
Audley & Queen's Park
607
807.8
82
779.2
Bastwell & Daisyfield
603
929.3
110
1216.9
Billinge & Beardwood
529
760.4
82
974.2
Blackburn Central
405
353.1
75
630.5
Blackburn South & Lower Darwen
230
466.2
47
509.6
Blackburn South East
275
448.1
54
691.4
Darwen East
236
330.6
66
681.9
Darwen South
213
323.8
52
601.4
Darwen West
253
461.7
54
692.5
Ewood
256
273.9
49
559.3
Little Harwood & Whitebirk
460
751.5
83
917.3
Livesey with Pleasington
201
497.3
50
621.6
Mill Hill & Moorgate
208
311.5
54
731.4
Roe Lee
441
647
77
874
Shear Brow & Corporation Park
591
1139.6
121
1436.4
Wensley Fold
463
655.8
79
878.1
West Pennine
175
277.8
32
444.5
Who are the cases?
The graphic below shows the rate per 100,000 people by age group since October 1. These are seven day rolling total rates (not daily). The darker the shading from pale orange to dark purple / black, the greater the rate of infection in that age group.
What does the map tell us?
Coronavirus is most prevalent in young people aged 16-29 where the rate has increased by over 400 per cent since the start of the month (a six fold increase).
The rate has increased by 183 per cent from 156 on the 1st October to 441 per 100,000 for our citizens aged 65+ (this is a threefold increase).
Infections are sweeping upwards across the generations with rates of infection increasing progressively in our older residents where the risks of hospitalisation and death are the greatest.
For children and young people in schools the rate of infections is increasing steadily from 121 per 100,000 from the start of the month to 393 (+225 per cent - a threefold increase) in the most recent week where complete data is available.
Heat maps of age-specific case rates per 100,000 people. Rates are calculated excluding data from the last four days due to reporting delays.
What about the deaths?
More than 19 per cent of hospital beds are now occupied within the Royal Blackburn Hospital – a huge increase on the 0.6 per cent recorded just nine weeks ago.
This week, the hospital recorded its most fatal weekend since the start of the outbreak, with seven deaths over Saturday and Sunday.
The East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust has recorded a total of 290 deaths since the start of the pandemic.
What are people saying?
The leader of Blackburn with Darwen council, Councillor Khan said: "I am extremely worried about the rising number of cases in the borough. We are seeing dozens of new positive tests every day.
"The reasons for the rise are complex including the sometimes mixed messages from government.
"I know most people have been trying to do the right thing but have often been confused by the different rules over the last few weeks.
"But it’s clear that while most residents are following the rules, some are not and this has helped the virus to spread across the community.
"This is having a huge impact on people’s lives and also health and care services.
"Being under the highest tier also has a massive impact on the local economy which in turn harms people’s health and wellbeing.
"I know people are sick and tired of COVID and want to get back to normal as soon as possible.
"Hopefully, the new measures will be a bit more simple for people to follow. We have also managed to secure funding to complement these measures.
"My plea to residents is follow the basic advice as we know that can make a really big difference in reducing the spread.
"Also, please don’t listen to myths and disinformation out there about the current situation. It is very grave.
"Please work with us and follow the restrictions."
*All data correct up until October 24 and publish by Blackburn with Darwen Council.
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